1 in 6
Chance the Democrat wins ( 16.7% )
5 in 6
Chance the Republican wins ( 83.3% )
# How the forecast has changed
We’ll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.
Chance of winning
Popular vote share
80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE
# What goes into the
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
# Latest polls
We’ve collected one poll for the Indiana 9th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
RV = Registered voters
LV = likely voters
Our latest coverage
# Similar districts and CANTOR
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Districts most similar to the Indiana 9th
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
# The “fundamentals”
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
# Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
The third-party candidates listed represent our best approximation of who will appear on each district’s general election ballot. The candidates listed will update as each race is finalized; some listed candidates may not ultimately qualify for the general election.
This analysis treats currently vacant seats as being held by the party that previously controlled them.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Design and development by Jay Boice, Emma Brillhart, Aaron Bycoffe, Rachael Dottle, Lauren Eastridge, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Andrei Scheinkman, Gus Wezerek and Julia Wolfe. Research by Dustin Dienhart, Andrea Jones-Rooy, Dhrumil Mehta, Mai Nguyen, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan and Geoffrey Skelley. Notice any bugs? Send us an email.
FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for the 2018 House elections in the Indiana 9th district
Indiana Election Results: Ninth House District
271,361 votes, 100% reporting (571 of 571 precincts)
Analysis From Our Reporters ›
Source: Election results and race calls from The Associated Press
By Sarah Almukhtar, Mike Andre, Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers, Larry Buchanan, Nate Cohn, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Tiff Fehr, Samuel Jacoby, Josh Katz, Josh Keller, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Rebecca Lieberman, Blacki Migliozzi, Paul Murray, Kevin Quealy, Jaymin Patel, Adam Pearce, Rachel Shorey, Michael Strickland, Rumsey Taylor, Isaac White, Maxine Whitely, and Josh Williams.
Alan Blinder, Lauretta Charlton, Emily Cochrane, Catie Edmondson, Elisabeth Goodridge, Pat Lyons, John Schwartz, Mitch Smith, Liam Stack and Jamie Stockwell contributed reporting.
See full results and maps from the Indiana midterm elections.